While the Princeton study that this prediction is based on has not been peer-reviewed, it is an interesting prediction. Recently we’ve seen high school students, college students, and those who have recently graduated from college (millenials? ages 22 to 30) start abandoning FB for other social media sites, or at least complementing their use of FB with the other sites. Why?
One valid reason is that their parents (me?) are using FB. And even if their parents aren’t their friends, it’s just “not cool” to use the same media as people in their 50’s. Another reason might be the importance prospective employers place on the use of FB to vet prospective employees.
While the future might hold a drop in the rate of new users to FB (what’s the ceiling to its membership, anyway?), as long as Zuckerberg and his team keep finding new social media outlets to purchase and integrate into FB in order to keep it relevant, and the advertising revenue continues to flow into Menlo Park, this is still an iffy projection at best.
And besides, those of us who are over 40 and use it generally use it for a different purpose than our children – not necessarily as a means to make plans to get together (as our children use social media), but to keep in touch with distant relatives, friends (real friends, not FB “friends”) and people from our past who actually mean something to us.